UNIT 3
2/12/16
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Aggregate Demand Curve
·
AD is the demand by consumers, businesses,
government, and foreign countries
·
What definitely doesn’t shift the curve?
·
Changes in price level cause a move along the
curve
·
AD= C + I + G + Xn
·
AD Graph!
·
Why is AD downward sloping?
1.
Real- Balance Effect-
·
Higher price levels reduce the purchasing power
of money.
·
This decreases the quantity of expenditures.
·
Lower price levels increase purchasing power and
increase expenditures.
2.
Interest- Rate Effect
·
When the price level increases, lenders need to
charge higher interest rates to get a REAL return to their loans.
·
Higher interest rates discourage consumer
spending and business investment. WHY?
3.
Foreign Trade Effect
·
When U.S. price levels rises, foreign buyers
purchase fewer U.S. goods and Americans buy more foreign goods
·
Exports fall and imports rise causing real GDP
demand to fall. (Xn Decreases)
Shifters of aggregate demand
·
GDP= C + I + G + Xn
·
There are two parts to shift AD:
-
A change in C, Ig, G and/or Xn
-
A multiplier effect that produces a greater
change than the original change in the 4 components.
Increases in AD = AD à
Decreases in AD = AD ß
Consumption:
-
Houshold spending is affected by-
-
Consumer wealth:
-
More wealth= more spending (AD shift à)
-
Less wealth= Less spending (AD shifts ß)
-
Consumer expectations:
-
Positive expectations = More spending (AD shifts
à)
-
Negative expectations= Less spending (AD shifts ß)
-
Household indeptedness
-
Less dept= More spending (AD à)
-
Taxes
-
Less taxes = more spendings (AD à)
-
More Taxes= Less spending (AD ß)
Gross private investment: INVESTMENT DEMAND
-
Investment spending is sensitive to:
-
Real interest rate:
-
Lower real interest rate = more investment (ADà)
-
Higher real interest rate = Less investment (ADß)
-
Expected returns:
-
Higher expected returns = more investment (ADà)
-
Lower expected returns = less investment (ADß)
Expectations of future profitability
Technology
Degree of excess capacity
Business Taxes
Government Spending
-
More government spending (ADà)
-
Less government spending (ADß)
Net Exports
-
Sensitive to:
-
Exchange rates (international value of $)
-
Strong $= more imports and fewer exports= (AD)
-
Weak $= Fewer imports and more exports= (AD)
-
Relative Income:
-
Strong foreign
2/18/16
·
Aggregate Supply- the level of Real GDP (GDP4)
that firms will produce at each price level (PL)
·
Long Run v. Short Run
Long Run
|
Short Run
|
Period of time where input prices are completely
flexible and adjust to changes in the price level
|
Period of time where input prices are so sticky and do
not adjust to the changes in price level
|
The level of real GDP supplied is independent of the
price level
|
The level
of Real GDP supplied is directly related to the price level
|
·
Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS)- marks the
level of full employment in the economy (analogous to PPC)
·
Because input prices are completely flexible in
the long-run, changes in price-level do not change firms’ real profits and
therefore do not change firms’ level of output. This means that the LRAS is
vertical at the economy’s level of full employment
·
Changes in SRAS
-an increase in SRAS shift to the Right
- A decrease in SRAS is seen as a shift to
the left
- The key to understanding shifts in SRAS
is per unit cost of production
Per-unit production cost= total input cost/
total output
Input X Price= Cost
OR input price/Level of productivity
·
Determinants of SRAS:
·
Input prices
-Domestic Resource Prices:
-wages (75% of all business
costs)
-Cost of capital
-Raw materials (commodity prices)
-Foreign Resource Prices
-Market Power
-Increase in Resource Prices= SRAS
-Decrease in Resource Prices= SRAS
·
Productivity:
= total output/ total inputs
More productivity= lower unit production cost=SRAS
Lower productivity= higher unit production cost= SRAS
·
Legal-institutional environment:
Taxes and Subsidies
-Taxes ($ to gov’t) on business increase per unit production cost= SRAS
-Subsidies ($ from gov’t) to business reduce per unit production cost=
SRAS
·
Government Regulation
-Government regulation creates a cost of compliance= SRAS
-Deregulation reduces compliance costs= SRAS
2/19/16
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Full employment equilibrium exists where AD
intersects SRAS and LRAS at the same point.
·
Recessionary Gap exists when equilibrium occurs
below full employment output.
·
Inflationary Gap exists when equilibrium occurs
beyond full employment output
(SRAS GRAPH RANGES)
·
Nominal wages- the amount of money received by a
worker per unit of time (clock in by the hour/day)
·
Real wages- The amount of goods and services a
worker can purchase with their nominal wage. (PURCHASING POWER OF NOMINAL WAGE)
·
Sticky wages- it is the nominal wage level that
is set according to an initial price level and it does not vary due to labor
contracts or other restrictions.
|
|
Price
|
Wages
|
Employment
|
Implications
|
Keynesian
range
|
Recession
|
Fixed
|
Fixed
|
Flexible
|
output depends upon changes in the employment
level
|
|
Intermediate
|
Flexible
|
fixed
|
Flexible
|
Output
depends upon changes in price and the employment level
|
Classical
range
|
Inflation
|
Flexible
|
Flexible
|
Fixed
|
Output is independent of changes in the price
level
|
Interest Rates and Investment
Demand:
·
What is investment?
·
Money spent or expenditures on
-New Plants
(factories)
-Capital
equipment (machinery)
-technology
(hardware & software)
-New homes
-Inventories
(goods sold by producers)
·
Expected Rates of Return
·
How does business determine the benefits?
Expected rate of
return
·
How does business make investment decisions?
Cost / benefit analysis
·
Business count the cost?
Interest costs
·
How does business determine the amount of
investment they undertake?
Compare expected
rate of return to interest cost
-
If expected return > interest cost, then
invest
-
If expected return < interest cost, do not
invest.
·
Real (r%) v. Nominal (i%)
·
What is the difference?
·
Nominal is the observation rate of interest.
Real subtracts out inflation (Pi%) and is only known ex past facto.
·
How do you compute the real interest rate (r%)
·
(r%) = i%- pi%
·
What then, determines the cost of an investment
decision?
·
Real interest rate (r%)
Investment Demand Curve (ID)
·
Shape of investment demand curve?
Downward sloping
·
Why?
When interest rates
are high, fewer investments are profitable; when interest rate are low, more
investments are profitable
Shifts in investment Demand (ID)
·
Cost of production
-lower costs
shift ID
-Higher costs
shift ID
·
Business taxes
-Lower business
-Higher business
·
Technological Change
-New tech ID
-Lack of tech
change
·
Stock of capital
-if an economy is
low
2/25/16
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AP MACRO- Consumption and saving
·
Disposible income (DI)- income after taxes or
net income
DI = Gross income
– Taxes
·
2 choices:
·
with disposable income, households can either
-consume
-save
·
Consumption- household spending
the ability to
consume is constrained by
-the amount of
disposable income
-the propensity
to save
·
Do households consume if DI = 0?
Yes
-Autonomous
consumption
-dissaving
·
Saving- Household NOT spending
The ability to
save is constrained by
-the amount of disposable
income
-the propensity
to consume
·
Do households save if DI = 0?
NO
·
APC (average propensity to consume) & APS
(average propensity to save)
·
APC + APS = 1
·
1 – APC = APS
·
1 – APS = APC
·
APC > 1 : dissaving
·
- APS : dissaving
·
Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)- the
fraction of any change in disposable income that is consumed
·
MPC = change in consumption/ change in
disposable income
·
Marginal propensity to save (MPS)
·
The fraction of any change in disposable income
that is saved
·
MPS= change in savings/ change in disposable
income
·
MPC + MPS = 1
·
MPC = 1 - MPS
·
MPS = 1 – MPC
·
Remember people consume or save
·
The spending multiplier effect- an initial
change in spending (C, Ig, G, Xn) causes a larger change in aggregate spending,
or AD
·
Multiplier= change in AD/ Change in spending
·
Calculator the spending multiplier- can be
calculated from the MPC or MPS
·
Multiplier = 1/ 1- MPC or 1/ MPS
·
Multipler are (+) when there is an increase in
spending and (-) when there is a decrease
·
Calculating the tax multiplier
-when the gov’t
taxes, the multiplier works in reverse
why?
-money leaves
circular flow
·
Tax multiplier (negative)
·
= -MPC / 1- MPC OR –MPC/ MPS
if there is a tax cut, then the
multiplier is +
2/29/16
·
Fiscal Policy-in the expenditures or tax
revenues of the federal govt
-two tools of
fiscal policy:
taxes- govt can
increase or decrease taxes
spending- govt
can increase or decrease spending
·
Deficits, surplus, debt:
·
Balanced budget- revenues equals to expenditure
·
Budget deficit- revenue < Expenditures
·
Budget surplus- revenues > Expenditures
·
Government debt- sum of all deficits – sum of
all surplus
·
Government must borrow money when it runs a
budget deficit
·
Govt borrows from-
-individuals
-corporations
-financial
institutions
-Foreign entities
or foreign governments
·
Fiscal policy two options:
·
Discretionary fiscal policy (action)
-expansionary
fiscal policy- think deficit
-contractionary Fiscal
Policy- surplus
·
Non- discretionary fiscal policy (no action)
·
Discretionary- increasing or decreasing govt
spending and/or taxes in order to return the economy to full employment.
Economic problem.
·
Automatic- unemployment compensation &
marginal tax rates are examples of automatic policies that help mitigate the
effects of recession and inflation. Automatic fiscal policy takes place without
policy makers having to respond to current economic problems.
Expansionary fiscal policy (easy)
|
Contractionary fiscal policy (tight)
|
Combat recession
|
Combat
inflation
|
Inc govt spending
|
Dec govt spending
|
Dec taxes
|
Inc taxes
|
Automatic or built in stabilizers
·
Anything that increases govts budget deficit
during recession and increases its budget surplus during inflation without
requiring explicit action by policymakers.
Ex. Transfer
payments- SSN, medicade, medicare, unemployment, veterans benefits
·
Progressive tax system- average tax rate (tax
revenue/GDP) rises with GDP
·
Proportional tax system-average tax rate remains
constant as GDP changes
·
Regressive tax system- Average tax rate fall
with GDP